QUOTE:
I'd personally feel much more comfortable trading a system that consistently returned between 5 and 25% with lower-than-average drawdowns.
I used BUFOX as an example that you could independently verify, but it's not the test I personally use, which is rather the strategy I trade.
This year I compare other strategies to my WLP small tech strategy, which has a YTD backtest return of 83.5%, shows a gain every year of a 10-year backtest, through 12/26/2013, with max drawdown of 30.3% (11/20/2008) through the period. The longest drawdown was 147 bars. The APR% for the 10 years is 44.76% while BH APR% is 10.78%. Starting the backtest with $100,000, it ends with $3,914,188. Limiting trades to 10% of Bar volume reduces APR% to 37.2% and drawdown is 30.5%. This strategy has been out-of-sample since July. An early version of it is in the Sandbox since March, but its symbols aren't supported. All numbers below are from WLP.
To the point of this thread, if the symbols were supported and I published it on WLS, how do I set a price?
Here's one attempt. Average monthly return is 2.95% and portfolio size is $100,000. So, the first year subscriber potentially averages $2,950/month. I'll charge 10%, $295/month. But, the Subscriber's portfolio and exposure is rising each month. After only a year, per APR% number above, he's investing $144,760 and gaining $4,500 or so/month. It would seem fair for me to raise my price. The opposite may be true in a market downturn where he's lost money. There's not a question here, just an illustration of the difficulties in setting a price and supporting DartboardTrader's request to allow price changes..
Supporting stats...
Annual Returns:
Period Starting Return Return % Max DD % Exposure % Entries Exits
1/5/2004 $5,937.91 5.94 -24.41 60.64 88 81
1/3/2005 $5,368.60 5.07 -15.49 88.55 107 106
1/3/2006 $45,481.51 40.86 -16.92 88.30 104 105
1/3/2007 $39,104.50 24.94 -14.44 80.17 106 107
1/2/2008 $48,783.37 24.90 -30.28 74.63 131 129
1/2/2009 $642,639.93 262.65 -22.51 87.07 128 128
1/4/2010 $356,023.59 40.12 -17.76 81.74 120 124
1/3/2011 $502,118.42 40.38 -21.68 85.12 130 125
1/3/2012 $441,712.18 25.31 -18.30 85.23 104 105
1/2/2013 $1,827,018.23 83.53 -7.64 85.43 85 85
Monthly Returns Since Out-of-sample(July, 2013):
7/1/2013 $298,361.75 10.01 -2.71 85.74 10 7
8/1/2013 ($94,494.93) -2.88 -5.26 80.07 9 8
9/3/2013 $189,431.35 5.95 -1.11 89.01 6 7
10/1/2013 $161,832.49 4.80 -2.60 82.62 6 8
11/1/2013 $234,201.76 6.62 -2.65 93.42 7 4
12/2/2013 $243,328.92 6.45 -1.67 92.35 3 4